Model Projects Lower Coronavirus Death Toll Thanks to Social Distancing

As many Americans enter their second month of staying-at-home, the death toll from the coronavirus increased again by nearly 1,000, with 16,686 Americans having passed away as of Friday morning. New York also earned the grim distinction of having at least 162,882 confirmed cases of COVID-19 - more than any other country in the world besides the United States. More than 5,000 people have died in the Empire State alone since the pandemic began.

More than 466,000 cases have been confirmed in the U.S. according to data collected by Johns Hopkins University. At least 26,000 people in the U.S. have recovered from the virus.

Here is your COVID-19 update for Friday, April 10, 2020:

Dr. Fauci Says Death Toll Will be Lower Than Expected in U.S Thanks to Social Distancing

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, says the death toll from the novel coronavirus in the U.S. is likely to be lower than originally projected thanks to the social distancing measures people are taking.

"The real data are telling us that it is highly likely that we're having a definite positive effect by this mitigation things that we're doing – this physical separation – so I believe we are gonna see a downturn in that,” Fauci, told NBC's "Today" show. 

"And it looks more like the 60,000 than the 100,000 to 200,000," he said. 

Fauci did not indicate which model he was citing as the reason for the falling death toll, however, a model put out by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation has shown a reduction in deaths as more data is received about the outbreak and spread of COVID-19.

The model now projects that up to 60,415 Americans will die from COVID-19 by August 4. Previous projections offered by the model said up to 100,000 to 200,000 people could die by then. At least 45 states are now predicted to have far fewer deaths than previously believed.

"A key CoronaVirus Model is now predicting far fewer deaths than the number shown in earlier models,” President Donald Trump wrote on Twitter Thursday. “That’s because the American people are doing a great job. Social Distancing etc. Keep going!”

The University's model also showed that at least five states will see an increase in the number of cases: Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, North Dakota and Rhode Island.

The university began modeling the outbreak on March 26, and is currently the most comprehensive state-by-state rundown of coronavirus infections, deaths and recoveries. The model also predicts the number of resources each state will need during the course of the outbreak.

Peak resource use is expected on April 11, 2020, the model predicts.

CDC Extends 'No Sail' Order for Cruise Ships

If you were hoping to hop on a cruise in the near future, you won't be departing from the United States. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Thursday extended a 'no sail order' that it imposed last month as part of the agency's effort to slow the spread of COVID-19.

The updated CDC order released on Thursday states that cruise ships are not allowed to board passengers or return to their normal sailing schedules until one of three conditions are met:

• The declaration by the Department of Health and Human Services that COVID-19 is a public health emergency expires.
• The CDC director decides to modify or rescind the no-sail decision.
• At least 100 days have passed since the new order is published in the Federal Register.

Until then, cruise ships will be stuck idling in port, or wallowing at anchor, the CDC states on their website.

"We are working with the cruise line industry to address the health and safety of crew at sea as well as communities surrounding U.S. cruise ship points of entry,” CDC Director Robert Redfield said in a statement. "The measures we are taking today to stop the spread of COVID-19 are necessary to protect Americans, and we will continue to provide critical public health guidance to the industry to limit the impacts of COVID-19 on its workforce throughout the remainder of this pandemic."

Most cruise lines have already suspended their operations amid the outbreak. Some cruise ships are still out at sea trying to find a friendly port that will allow their passengers to disembark.

The 'no-sail' order was first put out by the CDC on March 13 with it extended for thirty days. This new order could last much longer, depending on the length and severity of the pandemic.

Tokyo Olympics CEO Warns Games May Not Happen in 2021

Organizers for the 2020 Tokyo Olympics warned this week that athletes hoping to win Olympic gold may not get their chance in 2021 either thanks to the coronavirus pandemic.

Speaking through an interpreter at a news conference, Tokyo organizing committee CEO Toshiro Muto says he doesn't believe anyone can say whether the outbreak will be under control by next July.

”We’re certainly are not in a position to give you a clear answer," Muto said.

Organizers postponed the 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games last month amid the coronavirus pandemic and set a new opening for July 23, 2021. The Paralympics would follow three weeks later on Aug. 24.

“We have made the decision to postpone the games by one year," Muto added. “So this means that all we can do is work hard to prepare for the games. We sincerely hope that come next year mankind will manage to overcome the coronavirus crisis.”

According to data from Johns Hopkins University, Japan has confirmed at least 5,500 cases of COVID-19 and nearly 100 deaths. This week, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe issued an emergency declaration to battle the virus, giving authorities the ability to pressure people to stay home and businesses close.

The order is expected to last through May 6 and has been imposed in the country's capital, Tokyo, as well as six other prefectures.

At least 685 people have recovered from the virus in Japan.

"Rather than think about alternatives plans, we should put in all of our effort," Muto added. "Mankind should bring together all of its technology and wisdom to work hard so they can development treatments, medicines and vaccines."

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson Out of Intensive Care

British Prime Minster Boris Johnson is out of the intensive care unit where he was being treated for the coronavirus, a spokesperson said Thursday.

"The prime minister has been moved this evening from intensive care back to the ward, where he will receive close monitoring during the early phase of his recovery," the spokesperson said. "He is in extremely good spirits."

Johnson, 55, received oxygen treatment, but did not need to be placed on a ventilator, a spokesperson said. The British prime minister was hospitalized for COVID-19 after he tested positive last weekend. He was admitted to St. Thomas' Hospital on Sunday after reporting "persistent" symptoms of the coronavirus. Doctors moved him into intensive care the very next day.

By Wednesday, a spokesperson said Johnson was able to sit up in bed and communicate with the medical team about his condition. The prime minister has been moved into the main ward in St Thomas' Hospital, where he will "receive close monitoring during the early phase of his recovery."

Johnson's father, Stanley Johnson, told the BBC on Friday that his son needed to "rest up" before he returned to lead the country.

“To use that American expression, he almost took one for the team,” Johnson said, adding that he believes his son's hospitalization helped bring the country together and get people to realize the virus was a "serious event."

Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab was deputized and has been standing in for Johnson while the prime minister has undergone treatment.

Johnson first announced he had tested positive for COVID-19 on March 27 in a post on Twitter. He said at the time that his symptoms had been mild and that he was self-isolating.

So far, the United Kingdom has confirmed at least 65,000 cases of the coronavirus, with the death toll reaching 7,978.

To keep up to date on the latest news about the coronavirus and to understand what you need to stay safe and healthy, check out the Coronavirus: Fact vs Fiction podcast from CNN Chief Medical Correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta.

Photos: Getty Images